Just two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – however right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
